BSU and the 'Boston College' BCS equation

So BSU took care of business, beat the generous point spread the odds-makers gave to Idaho, and still dropped in the polls!  Such is the strange world of the BCS, but surprisingly, I believe this past weekend's turn of events actually helped, not hurt Boise State's chances of a BCS Bowl bid.  Before you accuse me of insane boosterism, take a look at my logic.

First of all, let's face it, college football is the new NFL, where it seems any college team on 'any given Saturday' can be any other college team.  Arizona over Oregon, Texas Tech over Oklahoma, and who beat Alabama this week?  Consider this.  We are far more likely this year to have an undefeated NFL national champion than an undefeated CFB national champion.  That has never happened before.

So where doe BSU fit into all of this chaos if they can beat Hawaii?  Barring a series of major upsets, I think BSU's chances come down to what happens with Boston College.  That's because each major conference can only send two teams to the BCS if they have two teams qualify, and some conferences don't.

Let's assume every favorite in every game played in the next two weeks wins, and BSU beats Hawaii.  #19 BSU would then pass in the polls ...

• Tennessee:  Barely beat Vanderbilt.  Must play Kentucky.  Even if they win that game, it would not carry the weight of BSU beating #15 ranked Hawaii.
• Illinois:  No games left to play.  Barring some sort of miracle, they are out of the BCS picture.
• Virginia:  Is the underdog against Virginia Tech next week.
• Hawaii:  BSU passes them if BSU beats them.
• USC:  Arizona State is favored to beat them.
• Boston College?:  If BC loses to Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game, could they still stay ahead in the polls of BSU with 3 losses?  Boston College is just ahead of BSU in the human polls, but the computers rank them much higher.  It would be very close.

Mind you, this is assuming absolutely no more upsets, which seems a bit unrealistic.  This would leave BSU #13 in the nation, just one away from the magic number of twelve which would guarantee them a BCS Bowl game.  Here are the teams that would be ranked ahead of them by conference, with teams in bold earning a BCS bid (remember, each conference is only allowed to send two teams to a BCS Bowl).  I'm also providing their likely finishes without any upsets.

• SEC:  (1) LSU, (8) Georgia, (9) Florida
• Pac 10:  (5) Arizona State, (7) Oregon
• Big 12:  (2) Kansas, (10) Oklahoma, (11) Missouri, (12) Texas
• Big 10:  (4) Ohio State
• Big East:  (3) West Virginia
• ACC:  (6) Virginia Tech
• Non-BCS:  (13)  Boise State

There are, however, some very possible upsets that could help or hurt BSU's chances.  They include:

Realistic upsets that helps BSU's chances:

1. Oregon loses it's two remaining games.  The loss of their Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback could easily make this a reality against two tough teams in UCLA and Oregon State.
2. Virginia Beats Virginia Tech.  This would virtually guarantee the ACC would send only one team to the BCS because Virginia would then play Boston College in the ACC championship, with the loser falling below BSU.
3. Florida loses to Florida State.  FSU has been playing well of late.
4. Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State.  Why not?  They just lost to Texas Tech.
5. Texas loses to Texas A&M.  Not likely, but it's been a strange year.

Realisitc upsets that hurst BSU's chances.

1. Boston College beats Virginia Tech for the ACC championship.  That puts two ACC teams ahead of BSU in the BCS standings.
2. Connecticutt beats West Virginia.  Both teams would finish ahead of BSU, taking the open spot BSU would need.  Unlikely, but possible.

But for now, here's what the most probable bowl picture looks like if BSU beats Hawaii.

• National Championship:  LSU vs. Kansas
• Fiesta Bowl:  Oklahoma vs. Oregon
• Sugar Bowl:  Georgia vs. Boise State
• Orange Bowl:  Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
• Rose Bowl:  Ohio State vs. Arizona St.

But to get there, BSU has to get past Boston College in the BCS standings or make the Top 12.  They are right on the bubble.

And here's one just for fun.  Let's say USC loses to Arizona State and Oregon does lose twice, plus BSU finishes ahead of Boston College in the polls.  Look what might happen.

• National Championship:  LSU vs. Kansas
• Fiesta Bowl:  Oklahoma vs. Boise State
• Sugar Bowl:  Georgia vs. Boston College
• Orange Bowl:  Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia
• Rose Bowl:  Ohio State vs. Arizona St.

A BSU, OU Fiesta Bowl rematch!  Now wouldn't that be something.