College football fans talk about Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl as if it is pretty much the same big bowl game BSU played last year. A Cinderella non-BCS conference school playing against the big boys in which non-BCS conference Cinderellas are 2-and-0 so far.
It's not the same thing. That's because as wrongly confident as so many were that Oklahoma would turn Boise State black-and-blue last year, there should be some real uneasiness about Hawaii's chances this year. The Warriors are the unbeaten team in the BCS many skeptics aren't sure belong there. If the skeptics are right ... and I'm not saying they are ... BSU has reason to worry too. That's because the BCS formula that has yielded Boise State University so much glory and money could be in jeopardy from bigger schools with much tougher schedules that are envious of what they see as an 'easy button' into a BCS Bowl Game for the BSU's and Hawaii's of the football world.
Just make a quick comparison of last year's BSU team and this year's Hawaii team, and it is easy to be skeptical.
- Last year's BSU team convincingly beat a tough PAC-10 Oregon State squad. This year's Hawaii team needed a last minute comeback to defeat a lackluster PAC-10 Washington team.
- Last year's BSU team made the top 10 with an undefeated season in a year that had many strong one-loss teams. Hawaii barely made the top 10 in a year when there will be a 2-loss team playing in the national BCS championship game and a 3-loss team in the Rose Bowl.
- Last year's BSU team had a well-rounded bank of talent including several seniors who would go on to be drafted into the NFL. Hawaii has good players, but their success has come mainly on the shoulders of one player, QB and Heismann Trophy candidate Colt Brennan.
And then there is the strength of schedule issue. Hawaii played one of the softest schedules in the nation this year, and only vaulted into the BCS after beating BSU, which also had one of the softest schedules in the nation (and then to make matters worse lost to East Carolina in the Hawaii Bowl). No one can make a credible argument that Hawaill is in any way "battle-tested." Their opponent on the other hand, Georgia, emerged as the second best team in a stacked, balanced and brutal Southeastern Conference.
So the Hawaii-Georgia Sugar Bowl looks to many like it has all the makings of a Bulldog blowout. BSU fans had better hope the game isn't one, because while my crystal ball is as cloudy as anyone's, BSU could easily find themselves in the exact same position next year that Hawaii is in this year.
Boise State's 2008 schedule looks weak, weak, weak! Likely the weakest for a major football program in the nation. Their away game at Oregon will be against a depleted and rebuiding Ducks team. BSU opens at home with ... ahem ... Idaho State. They also get to square off early against Southern Miss and Bowling Green. Not the kind of opponents that will impress those who dole out the real "bowling green."
Sure, the WAC may be improved next year. Fresno State looks to be better. Nevada could be a sleeper despite an embarrassing bowl game loss to end this year's season, and it remains to be seen if Hawaii can find a way to win next year without this year's amazing quarterback.
But for reasons that Boise State has little control over, their weak schedule will be a black mark for any BCS voter, whether it be human or computer. It's entirely possible the Broncos could run the table and still be left out of the BCS Bowl party. If Hawaii shows they can't play competitively in the big bad BCS Sugar Bowl sandbox on January 1st, that liklihood only grows.
That would be a shame. If BSU can solve its offensive line and quarterback riddles, next year could produce one of the most fearsome teams they've ever put on the football field. The 2008 Broncos will have so many quality running backs, it makes you think they could put Joe Hughes in at quarterback and still win. Three words for you Coach Pete. "Single wing formation!" The receiver corps could be explosive as well, and from d-line to linebackers to corners and safeties, the defense looks to be stacked.
But the Broncos success is also their biggest hurdle. No sane major college program wants to come play BSU on the blue turf of Bronco stadium. Those school's head coach's jobs are tough enough without trying to end a BSU regular season home winning streak that's been so long, it feels like it dates back to the Clinton administration. Oregon is so anxious to avoid coming to Boise for their scheduled game here in 2009, they've proposed playing it in China instead!
Right now, the Bowl Championship Series process is acceptable to the big conferences because it has produced good headlines and one unbelievable game. But if teams from the major conferences start to get the feeling they are being pushed aside by far worse non-BCS teams with far easier non-BCS schedules, you had better believe things will change. There is too much money and prestige at stake.
BSU could be 'scary good' next year, but if they manage to go undefeated, will they be respected enough to be in the running for a BCS Bowl Game? The answer to that question begins January 1st with a game the Broncos can only helplessly watch and hope Cinderella's slipper kicks butt one more time.