Ten days after election day, I'm still thinking about it. Whether you agreed or not with the election of Barack Obama to the Presidency (and most here did not), there is no denying the historic nature of it when it comes to the progress we've made in race relations in this country.
Whether you agreed with the election of Democrat Walt Minnick to Congress (and most here did), something also struck me about that race. It's that the Democrat Minnick is more similar in his political views, style and temperament to Mike Simpson, Mike Crapo and Jim Risch than Rep. Bill Sali ever was. It's probably why Sali's claims that Minnick isa 'Washington Liberal' didn't stick. He clearly is not. Minnick is 'center-right,' and it was the center part of that equation that propelled him to victory.
In two years, Idaho Republicans will fight hard to win the seat back while fighting back other Democratic challenges to its political dominance, but in doing so, the party itself faces two distinct choices. It can be the party that produces candidates who win primaries, or it can be the party that produces candidates who win elections.
The party that produces candidates that win primaries (but not necessarily elections) is the party that's seeking to close ranks by closing its primary. I've blogged before how that's a bad idea. In retrospect, it looks like an even worse one when you see who is behind it. It isthe forces of men like Bill Sali and Rod Beck.
Beck was a big loser too. He ran for ... of all things ... an Ada County Highway District Seat ... and lost by a considerable margin. Mind you, this was the same Ada County where voters ousted its only Democratic County Commissioner in favor of Sharon Ullman while also deciding a sitting Republican Commissioner who faced a strong Democratic challenge should stay. In other words, Beck lost in a county where Republicans did well. He should probably be grateful Ada County doesn't elect its dog catcher. It's one less seat he has the potential to lose.
But Beck has been successful in one very important political area. He was one of the forces behind state Republican's ouster of a more moderate party chairman in favor of the more conservative Norm Semanko. It is a considerable step towards moving the party in the direction of a closed primary Beck and others believe will lead to the nomination of more conservative Republican candidates.
Beck and other party conservatives believe the Republican brand in Idaho is so strong that the Republican Primary is really election day ... because on the real election day, Idahoans will just mindlessly vote for whichever candidate has the (R) by his or her name. In some parts of the state, that's true, but as the Minnick/Sali race reveals, Republicans can lose big races in conservative districts.
That's why the strongest challenge Minnick would face are from Republicans with reputations for being more moderate like John McGee or Lawrence Wasden. If Republicans do succeed in closing their primary, however, a rematch against Sali or perhaps even Semanko himself seems more plausible. That would give Minnick, who has studied carefully the success of Utah Rep. Jim Matheson (a 'Blue Dog' Democrat who keeps winning in a very red state because Republicans made the mistake of taking his defeat for granted), an easier path to re-election.
And Minnick's hardly the only 'Blue Dog' Democrat in Idaho. The state's Republican brand remains strong, but if you look at other states across the intermountain west such as Montana, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona, Democrats are making gains by claiming the center. If Idaho Republicans abandon it by putting forward candidates who are far-right vs. center-right, they may find themselves in a position one day where they cannot take any Idahoans vote for granted.
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